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Jim Smith Speaks

My friend Jim Smith sent the email message below to the membership of NBEIC, a group of economists of which I have the privilege to be a member. Jim is chief economist of EconForecaster, LLC, in Asheville, NC, and adjunct professor in the Kenan-Flagler Business School of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Jim...Read More

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The Miserable Youth Of Northern Europe by Jennifer Thomson, Gavekal Capital Blog Yesterday’s release of better headline unemployment in Europe marked the first time since 2012 that the rate has been below 11%: The resulting downtick in the region’s misery index (unemployment rate + inflation rate), while a step in the right direction, still leaves […] The post The Miserable Youth Of Northern Europe appeared first on ValueWalk.

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by Keith Weiner   Once upon a time, before banks and before even private lending, there was only one way to prepare for retirement. People had to hoard something durable. Every week, they would set aside part of their wages to buy salt (later, it was silver). Assuming it didn’t get wet, the salt accumulated until they couldn’t work any longer. Then, they would begin selling it off to buy groceries. This was the best they could do. By modern standards, it wasn’t a very good method.

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The question every PM investor is asking:  Will gold and silver crash along with equities in the coming epic market collapse? Jerry Robinson weighs in… The post 60% Stock CRASH Still Ahead! appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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They say that a picture is worth a thousand words. Yes, we've all heard that maxim before, but rarely does it ring so true as it does regarding the trademark case between Nestle, the candy giant, and FortiFX, much smaller makers of Fit Crunch bars. Fit Crunch bars appear to be marketed as a healthier option compared with traditional candybars. Nestle took notice of the name of the Fit Crunch bars and has claimed the name and, more importantly and central to their claim, the packaging in which

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With all the chatter about whether the Fed will hike on September 17 or not, let's do an interest rate and bond yield recap of where various rates are, where they have been, and where they are likely headed.Effective Federal Funds RateAs of yesterday, the effective federal funds rate was a mere 8 basis points. Since April, it has been swinging from a low of 6-8 basis points to a high of 14-15 basis points. I suspect the odds of a hike are close to 50-50.The CME Fed Watch has the hike odds

Read more: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

“The victim asked the 40-year-old TSA screener if he checked all passengers, and Oquendo allegedly said yes. He then allegedly lifted up her shirt, unzipped her pants and fondled her.” And in what is perhaps just as offensive… Submitted by Michael Krieger, Liberty Blitzkrieg: Last week, we learned how the naked body scanners, which the […] The post TSA Agent Arrested for Sexually Molesting South Korean Woman at NYC’s LaGuardia Airport appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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Signs of ‘smoke’ are everywhere…   Submitted by Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, Silver Coin Investor:  We took a little vacation over the weekend before Black Monday, August 24th, 2015. Having just finished contemplating and describing the fear and volatility left over from the previous week, I felt predisposed to signs of ‘smoke’ everywhere I looked. Freeway […] The post Firestorms, Real, and Financial appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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Five Chinese navy ships are currently operating in the Bering Sea, off the coast of Alaska, the first time the U.S. military has seen such activity in the area, Pentagon officials said Wednesday.    Submitted by Michael Krieger, Liberty Blitzkrieg: It’s never a good sign when the world’s second largest economy announces the most significant […] The post China Launches Biggest Military Overhaul in Decades as Warships Spotted Off Alaska for First Time appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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Who needs the barbarous relic anyhow??    From the SRSRocco Report: The lower price of gold has finally taken its toll on U.S. gold production.  Domestic gold mine supply fell considerably in May compared to the same period last year.  This is a significant amount as the United States is the fourth largest gold producer […] The post U.S. Gold Production Finally Hit Hard Due To Low Price appeared first on Silver Doctors.

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Following China's adoption of Nasdaq surveillance technology (to catch those malicious sellers), it appears 'Murica decided to borrow The National Team for the last 30 minutes of the day today. We need stock higher, so dump VIX, ramp AAPL, and all is well.   As AAPL vol was crushed: a 5 vol crash in the last 30 minutes!   ... all to get The Nasdaq Green for 2015:   Open, daily manipulation - it's not only for the Chinese.

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Lies, Damn Lies, and Political speech... It appears little white lies matter.. and so do blatant black ones...     Source: Townhall

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This seemed appropriate after last night's BOJ and PBOC efforts and today's oil idiocy... And then this utter farce...a 1% surge in the S&P and 4 point crash in VIX in the last 30 minutes!!   The VIX front-end term-structure "normalizes" out of backwardation - but back-end remains stressed...   As this was the longest period of backwardation since 2011's plunge   On NO VOLUME!   So let's start with stocks - which CNBC reflected on as

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Submitted by John Vibes via, One of the best ways for the general public to take power back is to develop alternative currencies — both local and global — that allow people to trade outside of the corporate-government banking systems and central bank notes. Many people in different areas of the world have been moderately successful at implementing local currencies, such as Mountain Hours or Ithaca Hours, which have gained traction in the U.S. In London, an

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Follow The Market Madness with Voice and Text on FinancialJuice EMOTION MOVING MARKETS NOW: 10/100 EXTREME FEAR PREVIOUS CLOSE: 9/100 EXTREME FEAR ONE WEEK AGO: 5/100 EXTREME FEAR ONE MONTH AGO: 22/100 EXTREME FEAR ONE YEAR AGO: 42/100 FEAR Put and Call Options: EXTREME FEAR During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 25.22% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still

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For those wondering why Chinese futures aren't crashing as of this moment, only to surge in the last hour of trading like plunge protected clockwork, the reason (and also the patriotic alibi behind China's "National Team" valiant, if failed, attempts to get a green Shanghai Composite close the past three days) is shown below: this is what Tiananmen Square looked like moments ago before the start of China's "historic" 70th V-day parade celebrating the anniversary of the end of the second world

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While ModernGraham supports the bottom-up approach to investing, many investors do utilize the top-down method, whereby an industry is selected before the company itself. With that in mind, this article will take a brief look at the best companies of the chemicals industry, selecting the most promising investment opportunities within the industry, and giving a […] The post The Best Companies of the Chemicals Industry – August 2015 appeared first on ValueWalk.

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WARNING: Public panic has just created a 5.1 standard deviation move in this astonishing indicator! The post WARNING: Public Panic Has Just Created A 5.1 Standard Deviation Move In This Astonishing Indicator! appeared first on King World News.

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Presented with no comment... (because we do not want to be "detained")     h/t @pdacosta

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The last time China held a military parade was six years ago, to celebrate the People’s Republic of China’s 6oth birthday. The official title of Thursday's parade is: “Commemoration of 70th anniversary of victory of Chinese people’s resistance against Japanese Aggression and World Anti-Fascist War.” In other words, China is celebrating the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. According to Dali Yang, political science professor and director of the University of Chicago’s center in Beijing, China’s leaders are putting on this parade to send two important messages. The first one is for the rest of the world: "The Chinese leadership is trying to send a signal, to the West in particular," notes Yang, "that China was then allied with the West. At the time, communist countries and capitalist countries were allied against fascists."  Chinese military helicopters fly over the city during a rehearsal ahead of Thursday's military parade (ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images) But here’s the problem: The leaders of China’s old wartime allies, like the United States and the United Kingdom, aren’t attending this celebration against fascism. So who RSVP’d? The list includes Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro, and Sudan’s Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who is wanted by the international criminal court for crimes against humanity and genocide. They’ll all sit together while Chinese troops goose-step by, a type of marching George Orwell called “one of the most horrible sights in the world.” Which leads us to what Yang says is the second, more important, message China wants to convey with this parade: “Having such a parade would allow President Xi, who is fighting corruption and trying to consolidate his power of the military, to show the country that he is the person who is in control of the military, and that China stands strong and tall to the world.” At no other time in Xi Jinping’s presidency has it been so crucial to convince his countrymen he’s in control. The 62-year-old leader has sent shockwaves through China’s Communist Party after his anti-corruption campaign led to disciplinary actions against a staggering 414,000 government officials. China’s economic transition has also been bumpy as of late. But whenever the going gets tough in China, a familiar enemy is rolled out. “One thing the country can get behind is a general and well-entrenched loathing of Japan,” says China historian Jeremiah Jenne. The Japanese killed an estimated 20 million Chinese in World War II; only the Soviet Union lost more people in the conflict. Yet China’s key role in fighting off the Japanese is largely forgotten in Western accounts of the war. But it’s not in China. Since the 1980s, state broadcasters have aired 302 television series chronicling China’s wartime resistance to the Japanese. Today, 33 of these anti-Japanese war dramas — including a cartoon for children — remain, aired on Chinese television at all hours of the day. The residue of all this programming rushes to the surface when residents in an alley neighborhood behind Beijing’s Tian’anmen Square are asked whether they’re going to watch Thursday’s parade. "You bet I’m going to go and watch!" screams shop owner Zeng Xiangren before loudly chanting "Down with Japanese imperialism! Down with Japan!" Zeng's 3-year-old relative yells “down with Japan” too. Across town on the campus of People’s University, the opinion about Japan is more nuanced. “‘I feel like as individuals, the Japanese are good, their education level is high," says 19-year-old incoming freshman Hu Jingyi. "But as a nation, their ideas are extreme. I just feel like they’re very frightening. Their national cohesion is very scary.” National cohesion can be very scary, of course. But for a fast-rising global power dealing with the demons of its past while trying to manage an historic economic transformation in the present, national cohesion can also be seen as crucial.

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Early in July, Sweden’s Riksbank proved its dedication to the post-crisis central bank mantra of “if it’s broken, break it some more” when, after becoming the first country to witness observable, indisputable evidence of QE’s failure, the central bank pushed rates further into negative territory and expanded QE.  The problem for Sweden, as we documented in “For The First Time Ever, QE Has Officially Failed”, is that QE had soaked up so much of the available high quality

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